Impact of continued overseas epidemic on China’s foreign trade export macro trends

Globalization of the epidemic further affects the resumption of flashlights for Chinese export companies
The prerequisite for stable foreign trade in 2020 is to resume production as soon as possible. According to the latest statistics, 90% of enterprises in major economic cities other than Hubei have resumed work, but the resumption of work in China’s most active SMEs in the market economy remains low.
These first-line small and micro enterprises, just like capillaries, have contributed more than 80% of China’s employment and economy. The core factor that affects the resumption of small and micro enterprises is the confidence of the market, because many small and micro enterprises in China are also service providers and supporting companies of enterprises above designated size in China. The outbreak and continuation of overseas epidemics will actually further increase the resumption of production. pressure.

There will be a certain downward trend in overseas market demand in the short term
At present, the continuous spread of overseas epidemics has also affected the production and consumption of overseas countries to a certain extent. For example, high-end manufacturing in Europe and the United States is short-term production, which will have a negative impact on China’s parts imports. The direct feedback is the current decline in export data of auto parts.
Like the attitude of China ’s national defense to control the epidemic, many consumers will not go out when the epidemic continues, so the export data and demand of some categories will drop significantly. For example, export demand for outdoor products and non-daily consumer goods will definitely have a very large impact and impact in the short term. According to the latest statistics of our team, due to the continued outbreak of overseas sentiment, the categories that have a greater impact on China’s overseas exports currently include the following categories: apparel, shoes, hats, bags, outdoor sports, automotive supplies, beauty, appliances, furniture, and The impact of these categories will continue to expand as the epidemic continues.

International logistics is further frustrated, affecting China’s foreign trade exports
The overseas epidemic has also greatly affected international logistics. At present, flights in Europe and the United States continue to decrease, and many countries have closed cities and even national borders. This has directly resulted in a surge in overseas logistics costs, inefficient cross-border retail logistics, Amazon FBA stockouts, and increased returns in overseas markets. problem. International logistics is the most important part of international trade. If the cost continues to increase or the efficiency decreases, this will have a serious impact on China’s foreign trade exports.

Online channels become explosive demand for online shopping
Any crisis is a coexistence of crisis and opportunity. With the continued overseas epidemic, traditional offline channels have closed or closed. For overseas consumers, online purchasing channels have become unique, so the current trend of e-commerce is still Is very good.
According to Amazon on the 16th, the company will recruit 100,000 warehouse and delivery employees in the United States to cope with the surge in online orders. This also shows that during the new crown pneumonia epidemic, many consumers have turned to the Internet to meet their needs.
In addition, according to the latest data statistics from Alibaba, on March 2nd, the March New Trade Festival of Alibaba International Station officially started. According to relevant data, the new trade festival opened in March for 12 hours, and the cumulative GMV of the entire site increased by 91 year-on-year %, The number of paying buyers increased by 62.8% year-on-year. As of February 29, the proportion of businessmen who received orders and received orders at international stations was 60.5%, and the proportion of businessmen who received orders and received orders at large stations accounted for 94.9%.

Overseas epidemic continues to explode, sales of some categories surge
Despite the continued overseas epidemic, the sales of some product categories are declining, but some products have ushered in the peak of consumption. According to the statistics of our team, the categories that are currently sold well by major cross-border e-commerce platforms include the following categories:
· Health and safety: masks, disinfection water, sanitary products. These products are currently sold on major cross-border e-commerce platforms and are even out of stock;
· Indoor entertainment and fitness become human: indoor fitness equipment, kitchen supplies, game entertainment, finished products, etc .;

 Learning and entertainment products: network cards, adapters, 3C digital, such as network cards, computers, iPads, and even mice, keyboards, etc .;Mother and baby toys: diapers, children’s dolls, etc .;Pet supplies: cat litter, pet decontamination, pet toys, etc.

We conducted a systematic investigation and found that although the crisis continues, the sales of these categories of foreign export enterprises are still stable. If cross-border e-commerce companies even sell well, opportunities will always exist in any crisis.

Cross-border e-commerce has become a real mainstream trend
At present, the development trend of cross-border e-commerce in China is in full swing. For ordinary SMEs, the following two points should be the most familiar. The cross-border B2B model represented by Alibaba’s digital trade overseas, taking Amazon, wish, and eBay as Represents the cross-border B2C model. Cross-border e-commerce has developed for so many years, and the overseas epidemic continues to make China’s cross-border e-commerce even more popular, becoming a truly mainstream export model.
We conservatively expect that the overseas epidemic will last for months or even longer. All traditional offline foreign trade export models will be severely blocked, but consumer demand in overseas markets still exists. These needs will further erupt on cross-border retail platforms and order models. Will tend to be more online, the fragmentation of orders, mobile phones. It is a unique or necessary choice for all foreign trade export companies to embrace cross-border e-commerce in 2020, and the cross-border e-commerce model is likely to be an efficient way to resolve this crisis in overseas markets.


Post time: Mar-26-2020